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Indian elections 2024: How important are emotions to electoral politics?

In India’s general elections, scheduled for April-May 2024, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hoping to repeat, if not outdo, its 2019 performance.

In those elections, the party and its allies garnered 45 per cent of the vote share and won over 300 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. Few observers had anticipated this scale of victory, subsequently attributed to factors ranging from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s persona, the BJP’s superior party organisation and higher levels of financial endowments, and its skillful blending of Hindutva, nationalism, and social welfare.

In the 2024 elections, the BJP is aiming to cross the 400-seat mark, building on the fervor created by the January 2024 inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya.

As the elections approach, we can expect analysts to mull over the same questions: why do people vote the way they do? What motivates voters, in India and elsewhere, to vote overwhelmingly for some parties and ignore others? Are voters rational entities or emotional beings?

While we have a growing understanding, as well as scholarship on the role of emotions in the context of protest politics, social movements, and riots, we have been left with the erroneous assumption that emotions are unimportant to electoral politics.

Scholarly efforts at understanding Indian voters have often focused on gauging their response to issues — the economy, unemployment, welfare — or examining their identity politics through the lenses of caste, class, and religion.

The prestigious Lokniti National Election Studies, for example, comprehensively documents voters’ knowledge, awareness, and perceptions of political developments in India that might impact their political behavior without sufficient attention to the feelings and passions engendered by electoral politics.

The neglect of emotions in electoral politics has led social scientists to ignore the importance of emotions in a key pillar of India’s democracy: elections. Meanwhile, the increasingly sophisticated analysis of elections could do more to integrate the study of emotion. Where does the studying of passions fit into the scholarship on routine electoral politics?

 Narendra Modi in Telangana on March 17. — @narendramodi/X.
Narendra Modi in Telangana on March 17. — @narendramodi/X.

In Passionate Politics: Democracy, Development, and India’s 2019 General Elections, a recent book I edited, the authors and I highlight the emotions that underpinned the stupendous support Modi and his party enjoyed in that year’s elections, despite the obvious economic hardships people faced due to such disastrous economic policies as the demonetisation of high-currency notes less than three years prior.

Our focus on emotions in Passionate Politics does not deny voters their rationality. Emotions are not non-rational. By definition, they suppose events or situations that we appraise as harmful or beneficial.

Neuroscientists have demonstrated that emotions support rationality and provide it with salience and goals. Furthermore, emotions are intrinsically social, embedded as they are in economic, cultural, and political processes.

Other scholars have begun to study emotions in South Asia and how they matter. Historian Margrit Pernau suggests that emotions matter at three different levels.

First, they impact the way humans experience the world around them. Second, they shape the process through which individuals (and social groups) endow their experiences with meaning and understand the world. Third, emotions provide the motivation to transform the interpretation of the world into acting in the world.

Such an understanding of emotions cautions against creating a dichotomy between emotional and rational analysis and between passion and reason. Indeed, just as the pursuit of rational interests is never emotionally neutral, passions often inhere their own rationalities.

In their insightful commentary on the politics of emotions in South Asia, anthropologists Amélie Blom and Stéphanie Tawa Lama-Rewal distinguish between the representation of emotion, the ways in which it is experienced, and its expression. Representation of emotions describes how people’s emotions are represented by others. The expression of emotions draws on verbal and non-verbal markers, including self-reporting of how respondents feel. The experience of emotions relates to the emotions people actually feel.

Scholars of India have turned their attention to the politics of emotions in the country, as historians and anthropologists offer us rich and granular perspectives. The landscape of Indian politics is dotted with moments when passions, feelings, and emotions were on full display.

Attention to passions has tended to focus on cataclysmic events such as India’s Partition and communal violence that has blemished India’s record as a democracy, mass movements such as the cow protection campaigns, agitations against the implementation of affirmative action, and collective protests against such atrocities on women, children, and members of oppressed social groups.

Indeed, much of this fascinating work focuses on social movements, community-formation, and collective action-including protests, riots and displays of outrage, hurt, and militancy. We have some excellent studies of emotions in the context of pride, humiliation, and nationalism.

Still, not enough has been done on the direct question of emotions in electoral politics, including how they apply to routine democratic practice. In its heyday as India’s dominant party, the Congress Party may well have benefitted from such passionate politics. In the first ever general elections after becoming a republic, held in 1951-52, the Congress Party under first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru won 45pc of the vote and 364 of 489 parliamentary seats.

In the second general election, the Congress Party improved its vote share (47pc) as well as seat share (371). In 1971, Indira Gandhi commanded 43pc of the vote and 352 seats out of 543, successfully translating a smaller vote share than Modi’s into larger seat-shares than he did in 2019.

In all three cases, passions among voters translated into their thumping support for the Congress Party. Sadly, we know very little of the emotions underpinning voters as they handed the Congress Party such crushing majorities.

This book is aimed at a contribution to understand the ways in which passions infuse the routine aspects of politics as election. The passionate politics described in the book are distinct from passions that are produced during such spectacular episodes as protests, riots, and social movements.

Instead, the aim has been to explicitly analyse the passions on display during, prior to, and following the elections, as well as contextualise them in hopes of making sense of the 2019 general elections.

This focus on a single empirical case furthers a theoretical contribution on the study of passions in politics — that emotion is entwined with reason, thereby contributing to render untenable the false dichotomy that is often drawn between the emotional and the rational.

Efforts to engage with emotions in politics, as in our volume, build on the pathways innovated by anthropologist Mukulika Banerjee in her fascinating ethnography of India’s 2009 General Elections. Her book focuses on “ordinary Indians’ experience of elections, and on what elections mean to them”.

The “expressive acts of voting” discussed in that work emerge from their feelings and emotions toward issues and politicians that journalists, academics, and activists might find far less interesting than Modi or Hindu nationalism.

In order to better understand the passionate politics that underpin electoral democracy in India, we need further conversations between political scientists, economists, sociologists, and anthropologists scrutinising this vital, understudied element of our democratic practice.


This article originally appeared in India in Transition, a publication of the Center for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania and has been reproduced with permission.



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Calls for probe into letter by 6 IHC judges on ‘brazen meddling’ in judicial affairs

Calls emerged from various quarters on Wednesday for a probe into allegations made by six Islamabad High Court (IHC) judges against interference in judicial affairs by the country’s intelligence apparatus.

On Tuesday, six IHC judges — out of a total strength of eight — wrote a startling letter to the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) members, regarding attempts to pressure judges through abduction and torture of their relatives as well as secret surveillance inside their homes.

The letter addressed to SJC members — Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Qazi Faez Isa, Supreme Court Justices Mansoor Ali Shah and Munib Akhtar and IHC CJ Aamer Farooq and Peshawar High Court CJ Mohammad Ibrahim Khan — also questioned if there existed a state policy to “intimidate” and coerce judges.

The six judges also supported the demand of the former IHC judge, Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui, for a probe into the allegations of interference by Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) operatives.

In an open letter released today, Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) Additional Secretary Sardar Shahbaz Ali Khosa urged CJP Isa to take suo motu notice of the matter under Article 184(3) of the Constitution and conduct a “thorough and transparent (live) hearing” of the case.

He also called for an “immediate and rigorous scrutiny” into the allegations. “The judiciary must be a safe haven for the pursuit of justice, untouched by the shadow of coercion, fear, or undue influence,” Khosa said.

He also highlighted a “recent crackdown on journalists and media outlets who have reported on these alleged interferences” and urged CJP Isa to summon prominent journalists across Pakistan to detail the “extent of interference and coercion that the free press is being meted to on an everyday basis”.

The SCBA official further called for a meeting of the SJC to be convened on the issue and “not only ascertain the way forward but also fix responsibilities”.

“The SCBA of Pakistan, alongside lawyers and bar associations across the nation, will and must stand ready to support our judiciary in upholding the rule of law,” the open letter stated.

“For if we are not just today or turn a blind eye or a deaf ear, history will surely judge us harshly even if it is after fifty years,” it added.

Human rights lawyer Imaan Zainab Mazari-Hazir termed the letter “huge”. “Everyone has known the pressure the courts have been under but the bravery of these 6 judges must be applauded,” she said.

PTI calls for ‘impartial inquiry’

Meanwhile, a statement posted on the X account of former prime minister Imran Khan — who is currently incarcerated — “welcomed the six brave judges […] who have highlighted the alarming state of affairs of the higher judiciary” and called for an “impartial inquiry” into the matter.

“This letter with its two annexures, brings on the record the brazen and shameful interference of the intelligence agencies in judicial matters, which is a damning indictment against the independence of the judiciary in the country,” the statement said.

“The fact that the judges have been intimidated and coerced into giving judgments based on political expediency raises a lot of questions on the fairness of the courts and their judgments over the last two years,” it added.

It said the letter also questioned the “credibility of the state narrative with results to May 9, an event instigated within the IHC when Chairman PTI Imran Khan was abducted and dragged from the court premises by paramilitary forces, who stormed the building of the IHC”.

Highlighting that a “wave of political victimisation has been unleashed” against the party, the PTI said that “courts have been unable to assert their authority or dispense justice”.

The statement emphasised that as the IHC and its lower courts were where cases against Imran were sub judice, “the fact that this court is under influence and pressure raises serious doubts on these cases as well”.

Judges lauded for showing ‘bravery’

PPP’s human rights cell president and former Senator Farhatullah Babar said that the letter by the six judges about “their coercion, intimidation and invasion of privacy by agencies is beyond wildest imagination”.

“Sweeping it under the rug is inviting disaster, hastening implosion. Eternal gratitude to judges for standing up and calling [a] bluff at [a] huge risk,” he said.

“As an advocate of the high courts of Pakistan, I stand in solidarity with the judges of IHC,” said Barrister Khadija Siddiqi.

Activist Usama Khilji said that “the bar must stand with the bench with full force to uphold the independence of the judiciary in Pakistan”.

The letter

Dated March 25, the letter was signed by IHC Justices Mohsin Akhtar Kayani, Tariq Mehmood Jahangiri, Babar Sattar, Sardar Ejaz Ishaq Khan, Arbab Muhammad Tahir and Saman Rafat Imtiaz.

It mentioned seven instances of alleged interference and intimidation “to influence the outcome of cases of interest” by the intelligence officials, pointing out that when two out of three judges in the bench hearing the plea to disqualify PTI leader Imran Khan for concealing his alleged daughter opined that the case was not maintainable, they were pressured by “operatives of the ISI” through friends and relatives.

The situation got so stressful that one of the judges had to be admitted to hospital due to high blood pressure, the letter said.

According to the six judges, the matter was brought to the notice of the IHC chief justice and the then-CJP. The former informed the judges that he had “spoken to the DG-C of ISI and had been assured that no official from ISI will approach the judges of the IHC”.

The letter complained that “interference on the part of intelligence operatives” continued even after IHC CJ’s assurance.

It also referred to the abduction of an IHC judge’s brother-in-law by armed men who claimed to be ISI operatives. The victim was “administered electric shocks” and “forced to record a video” making false allegations, apparently against the judge.

“Subsequently, a complaint was filed against the judge of IHC before the SJC, accompanied by an orchestrated media campaign to bring pressure to bear upon the judge to resign.”

The letter revealed that in May 2023, an IHC inspection judge reported to the chief justice that district court judges were being intimidated and crackers were thrown into the house of one additional district and sessions judge.

The judge was even called to the IHC to verify the claims which he confirmed. But instead of probing the allegations, the judge “was made officer on special duty and transferred to IHC, before being sent back to Punjab as he was a judicial officer on deputation”.

The letter said that last year, during routine maintenance, an IHC judge found that his official residence had been bugged with spy cameras concealed in his drawing room and bedroom.

When data from surve­illance equipment was rec­overed, it showed that “pr­i­vate videos of the judge and his family members” were stored. “The matter was brought to the attention of the IHC chief justice. There has been no determination of who installed the equipment and who is to be held accountable…”, the letter added.

Along with their letter to the SJC, the six judges also attached copies of letters written to Justice Farooq on May 10, 2023 and Feb 12, 2024.

The letters mentioned, among other complaints, ISI officials’ efforts to pressurise IHC judges and probe into the tax records of at least one judge “to seek a certain outcome”.

They added that it was imperative to determine whether there was a “policy on the part of the executive … implemented by intelligence operatives” to intimidate judges.

“[The] allegations of interference by operatives of ISI have been dealt with and relief has been granted to a former judge of IHC who was wronged. We believe that while such action was necessary, it may not be sufficient,” the letter said about Justice Siddiqui’s case.

The judges noted that the SJC’s code of conduct for judges did not outline the response to such incidents “that are tantamount to intimidation and interfere with judicial independence”.

They called for a judicial convention to discuss the interference of intelligence officials “that undermines independence of the judiciary”.

The consultation would help the Supreme Court to determine a course of action that judges could take “when they find themselves at the receiving end”, the letter said.



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Shares at PSX climb 500 points in intraday trade

Bulls dominated the trading floor of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Wednesday as shares gained over 500 points in intraday trade, with analysts attributing the gains to “good progress” made regarding the privatisation of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA).

On Tuesday, the federal cabinet approved the board of PIA Holding Company, with former State Bank governor Tariq Bajwa being appointed as its chairman.

The move was hailed as a significant development in the national carrier’s privatisation process as its liabilities and assets will be transferred to the holding company, which will be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan. The board will include seven independent directors and four government officials.

Today, the benchmark KSE-100 index gained 520.58 points, or 0.79 per cent, to stand at 66,426.85 points at 11:14am from the previous close of 65,906.27.

Mohammed Sohail, chief executive of Topline Securities, said “good progress” made regarding the privatisation of the national carrier and a “likely new deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)” was helping market sentiment.

He highlighted that the benchmark index was once again closing in on the all-time high number of 66,427 points, which was seen in December.

Moreover, he said that foreign fund buying — as shown by National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited (NCCPL) data — also supported share prices “which are trading at an attractive price-to-earning ratio of less than four”.

He said that currently the country’s market was the best performing market with the highest gains in last six months.

Shahab Farooq, director of research at Next Capital Limited, attributed the rally to “positive developments” on the macroeconomic front such as the progression of PIA’s privatisation and moving ahead with the new IMF deal.

“The finance minister’s statement regarding interest rates and foreign buying are [also] fueling positive sentiments in the market,” he said.

Yousuf M. Farooq, director of research at Chase Securities, said, “The relative calm on the political front, coupled with the finance minister’s rational interview on a media channel, alongside institutional and foreign buying this morning, has kept investors upbeat.”

However, he warned that participants were getting increasingly concerned about the record high interest rate “which could potentially lead to more defaults and non-performing loans (NPLs), particularly in the textile sector where higher energy costs compared to peers are making textile firms uncompetitive”.



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Pakistan to tour Australia in November to play 3 ODIs, T20Is

The Pakistan cricket team is set to visit Australia for a white-ball series scheduled for November this year as Cricket Australia (CA) on Tuesday released its international schedule for the 2024-25 season.

In a press release, the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) said that the tour — which will mark the start of Australia’s white-ball schedule for the summer of 2024-25 — would comprise six games in total.

It said that three one-day internationals (ODIs) and as many T20Is will be played across six venues from November 4 to 18.

“Pakistan will be returning to Australia after a gap of almost one year, after having competed in the Benaud-Qadir Trophy which comprised three Test matches played across Perth, Sydney and Melbourne in December 2023-January 2024,” the PCB said.

The cricket board further said that the ODI series would begin on November 4 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground before moving to Adelaide and Perth on November 8 and 10, respectively.

Pakistan last played an ODI series on Australian soil back in 2016, which saw the home side come out on top, the PCB said.

Subsequently, Pakistan and Australia will face each face-off in the three T20Is. Pakistan’s last T20I outing on Australian soil was back in 2022, wherein the men in green appeared in the final of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup.

“The series will start at The Gabba in Brisbane. Action will then move to the Sydney Cricket Ground; Pakistan’s last T20I at the venue saw them beat New Zealand at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup semi-final. Hobart will be the last stop on the tour, where the final T20I will be played on November 18,” the PCB said.

Australia-India Test series

Meanwhile, CA also announced that Perth will host the first match of a blockbuster five-Test series against India from November 22.

The series will then move to Adelaide for a day-night Test and then Brisbane’s Gabba, which traditionally was the opening venue of Australia’s Test summer.

The Melbourne Cricket Ground will stage the Boxing Day Test and the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series will wrap up at Sydney Cricket Ground starting on January 3.

CA chief executive Nick Hockley called it “one of the most highly anticipated summers of cricket in memory”.

“Fittingly, the Border-Gavaskar Trophy has been put on the same footing as the (men’s) Ashes with a five-Test series for the first time since 1991-92,” he said.

Australia have not beaten India in a home series since 2014-2015.

The hosts have, however, won all four previous Tests at Perth Stadium.

“We’re confident the schedule will maximise viewership and attendance and there will be a tremendous atmosphere in stadiums across the country,” said Hockley.



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PPP says opposition in KP to spring ‘surprise’ in Senate polls as JUI-F’s Talha Mahmood joins party

PPP Central Information Secretary Faisal Karim Kundi on Tuesday asserted that opposition parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would spring a “surprise” in the upcoming Senate elections.

He made the remarks while addressing a press conference in Islamabad with PPP General Secretary Nayyer Bukhari and former Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) senator Talha Mahmood — who announced that he would be joining the party.

“As soon as the oath (on reserved seats) is taken, opposition parties in KP will give a surprise in the Senate elections,” Kundi said.

The PPP leader also criticised the KP government for employing “delaying tactics” in the oath-taking of MPAs on reserved seats. Noting that the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) had been denied reserved seats by the Peshawar High Court, he said the PPP wanted the oath-taking to take place as soon as possible.

He said the PTI-SIC was afraid that “they would lose many Senate seats” if oaths were administered to women and minorities on reserved seats.

The PPP leader stated that the PTI-SIC was violating the Constitution and law, urging KP Assembly Speaker Babar Saleem Swati to fulfil his constitutional role.

Kundi further said there were reports of a “forward bloc” within the PTI-SIC in Punjab and that there were also rumours of the same happening in KP.

“I am also hearing such voices in KP that there there may soon be a press conference, and a forward bloc may be announced,” he said. Kundi further said that “more friends from KP” were in contact with the party and would join it.

JUI-F’s Talha Mahmood joins PPP

Meanwhile, former JUI-F senator Mahmood announced in the same press conference that he was joining the PPP.

“In my opinion, Pakistan right now immensely needs […] that I do some work on the national level. And on the national level, I think there is no other party other than the PPP in the current circumstances.

“Therefore, I have decided […] I have joined the PPP and they have shown me respect. The PPP’s history is that they have stood by in difficult times and tried to play their role in improving Pakistan’s situation,” he added.

Mahmood said that the PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari had invited him to join his party. The former religious affairs minister added President Asif Ali Zardari also held a “detailed meeting” with him a week ago and invited him to join the PPP.

Recalling that he had been a part of the JUI-F ever since he joined politics, Mahmood highlighted that Pakistan currently faced “various” challenges.

The former senator, whose tenure ended earlier this month, recalled that he had also served as the chairman of the Senate committees on finance and interior.

“In the past 18 years, I did not seek any privileges from the government of Pakistan. Neither did I take any salary nor any other kind of privilege,” he said.

Bukhari welcomed Mahmood to the party, saying, “We all, on our behalf and the party’s, welcome Talha Mahmood sahib into the PPP.

“You expressed trust in the party leadership [and] considered the PPP a party that can steer the country out of the crises under current circumstances,” he said.

Highlighting Mahmood’s role as a senator from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Bukhari said, “We hope that his role in the PPP will be very positive as well.”



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Bugti dismisses officials of Shehla group as power struggle in PHF heats up

LAHORE: The ongoing tussle for power in the Pakistan Hockey Feder­ation intensified on Monday when Tariq Hussain Bugti, who took the vote of confidence from the divided Congress on March 21 in Islamabad, sacked a number of officials believed to be close to his rival group.

Bugti visited the PHF office in Lahore and sacked all the officials, who had a soft corner for the rival group — headed by PPP MNA Shehla Raza — who took the vote of confidence from her like-minded members of the PHF Congress meeting held in Karachi on March 19.

The employees who were sacked included Ali Abbas (executive secretary), Khalid Bashir (administrator) and Qadeer Bashir (assistant admin).

Tariq said that he had also registered an FIR against Haider Hussain, who is working as secretary under Shehla-headed federation.

“We have got an FIR registered against Haider for taking home the PHF office documents and using the official PHF email [account] correspondence with the International Hockey Federation (FIH) and the Asia Hockey Federation (AHF),” Tariq said while addressing a press conference alongside PHF secretary Rana Muj­ahid in Lahore on Monday.

When highlighted that he had sent a letter to the Ministry of Inter-provincial Coordination (IPC) on Dec 28 last year for placing all the PHF presidents and secretaries who had worked from 2008 to 2022 on the exit control list and now he was working with the same officials, Bugti said the investigation into the registered cases with the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) would continue and if anyone was punished in those cases, he would not be allowed to work with the PHF.

It may be mentioned here that Mujahid, Asif Bajwa, Shahbaz Senior as secretaries and Qasim Zia, Akhtar Rasool and Brig Khalid Sajjad Khokhar as presidents had worked in the PHF from 2008 to 2022.

Tariq further said that show-cause notices had been issued to the Karachi Hockey Association office-bearers for their “unconstitutional activities against the PHF”.

According to Tariq, he was expecting a meeting with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif after April 2 in which he would request him to support the PHF financially insisting “huge funds are required to put the federation’s affairs back on track”.

He said that Mujahid would finalise a programme of hockey activities to present it to the PM.

To a question, Tariq said that the Pakistan Sports Board (PSB) had issued the notification of his election as PHF president while the Pakistan Olympic Associ­ation (POA) had also endorsed his election by attending the March 21 Congress in Islamabad.

He said that the PHF bank accounts had also been restored and the staff salaries due for the last seven months, would also be cleared soon.

“The arrears of the Pakistan’s senior and junior teams will also be paid soon.”

Later on Monday, Bugti and Mujahid went to the Olympic House and met POA secretary general Khalid Mahmood.

Published in Dawn, March 26th, 2024



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Snowless winter, surprise rain, unusual cold wave: What is up with Pakistan’s weather?

When Mohammad Hasan returned to his hometown in Gilgit-Baltistan last month, he was welcomed by a parched Skardu gasping for precipitation. The peaks encircling the town, usually hidden under a blanket of snow, looked livid with thirst.

In neighbouring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, ‘hotspots’ Malam Jabba, Swat and Kalam also failed to transition from brown to white. The cities’ otherwise crowded streets only sported desperate shopkeepers cajoling disappointed tourists.

Snow and rain had eluded the northern areas in the peak of winter.

On the other hand, down south, floods wreaked havoc in Balochistan — that too in February. Gwadar received over 2,200 millimetres of rain within a span of just a few days, while other areas of the province recorded freezing temperatures.

In the southeast, an ‘unusual’ cold wave left Sindh shivering. Karachi saw temperatures going down to 11 degrees Celsius earlier this month, recording the coldest-ever March since 1979.

Just three months into 2024, Pakistan already seems to be treading a path of extremities (no, I am not talking about the post-election situation). So what is making the weather bipolar?

Snow deficit

Across Pakistan, January generally qualifies as the coldest month of the year and sees the highest amount of rain or snowfall, particularly in the upper regions. But in KP and GB, this year brought a “big and rare snow deficit”.

“By this time of the year (December-January), the streets should have been covered with seven to eight feet of snow,” said Hasan, a travel photographer. Instead, what he met were dry weather and dust pollution.

The average snowfall across the country during these months is 47.5 inches. But this year was very different because January was coming to an end and Pakistan had only received one to two inches of snow.

While the prolonged dry spell in both KP and GB finally broke in the beginning of February, Chief Meteorologist Sardar Sarfraz said these new patterns were nothing less than “alarming”.

“Snowfall on the mountains keeps the flow in rivers and streams going during spring and summers,” he told Dawn.com, explaining that this water does not just help with domestic use but also produces electricity, helps with irrigation and feeds dams.

The snow in January, he continued, is solid, stagnant and lasts longer than other months. “The lifetime of the snowfall in February and March is less and it melts faster,” Sarfraz said.

This means that the country may face a water and food shortage this year. But how?

The journey of water from up north down to the plains of Punjab and further south towards the Indus Delta is fed by snowmelts. For instance, water from the mountains of Kashmir feeds the Mangla and Tarbela dams, while the Indus River travels all the way from GB to the Kotri Barrage in Jamshoro.

“If the water flow is not good, these water expeditions will be affected and that would in turn harm irrigation,” Sarfraz elaborated. For an agro-based country like ours, this poses a major risk.

Moreover, the economy of KP and GB primarily thrives on tourism. Every year, people from across the country, throng up to Naran, Kaghan, Hunza and other areas only to enjoy winters.

But many of those who made the tiring journey up north this year came back disheartened, and the reason was just one: no snow. Ali Sheikh, a Rawalpindi-based traveller, said the ski resorts of Malam Jabba and Kalam, once packed with tourists, were empty in January.

“It seemed as if a strange drought had hit these areas,” he recalled.

This “drought” had hit both the mountains and the locals alike. Shopkeepers and vendors who depend on tourists for their livelihood had to fend for themselves through alternative means.

Dr Tariq Rauf, a PhD scholar who works on disaster management in Kohistan, blamed seasonal shifts for these weather patterns. He explained that the number of seasons over the past several years, even up north, has reduced to just two — summer and winter.

“It is either the monsoon rains or the winter landslides. There is nothing in between,” he told Dawn.com, explaining that average temperatures have increased. “Even in winters, temperatures are relatively warmer, which is forcing the glaciers to melt rapidly.

“And when these glaciers melt at such a pace, they bring floods — similar to or worse than the 2022 disaster.”

Gwadar deluge

More than 1,400 kilometres to the south, just as February came to a close, a storm hit Balochistan. Record-breaking rains ravaged several areas of the province, especially Gwadar — a city that the government boasts for its development and overseas investment — and neighbouring towns, and triggered floods.

“It rained for two consecutive days,” said Muhammad Bizenjo, a resident. “Our houses were flooded. The furniture in my house was swimming in waist-high water.”

Next door, the walls of Yaqoob’s room had caved in, forcing him to spend the night on the roof of their katcha makaan. “At 3am, when there was no other option, I waded to my sister’s house and have been living here with my wife and children ever since,” the 34-year-old government employee said.

The aftermath of the chaotic rains that lashed Gwadar. — Photo shared by Yaqoob
The aftermath of the chaotic rains that lashed Gwadar. — Photo shared by Yaqoob

Two weeks on, Yaqoob has still not been able to return home. His house, located in the Thanawar area of Gwadar, bore the cracks of the rain assault. They were, however, now hidden with cheap plaster. Several of his neighbours had a similar story to tell.

According to the Provincial Disaster Management Authority, at least 10 people lost their lives during the February-March rains. Hundreds of houses were either completely or partially damaged in the floods — they were not just makaans, but tiny abodes built with life-long savings.

While incessant showers battered Gwadar, temperatures in other areas of the province tanked below zero, paralysing life.

Incessant rains wreak havoc in Gwadar. — Photo shared by Yaqoob
Incessant rains wreak havoc in Gwadar. — Photo shared by Yaqoob

“For the first time in years, major stations across Balochistan recorded the lowest day and night temperatures,” the chief meteorologist told Dawn.com.

Besides drowning Gwadar, these rains and snowfalls also penetrated down to Karachi, resulting in an unusual cold wave in March. The average daily temperature in the city during this month lies between 32.6 degrees in the day and 19 degrees at night.

But this time, Karachiites, many of whom had put away their winter clothes for the year, saw temperatures going as low as 11 degrees Celsius — that too in March.

Dr Masood Arshad, senior director of programmes at WWF-Pakistan, attributed the Balochistan rains to the “La Nina phenomenon”.

La Nina, literally translating to “little girl” in Spanish, is a weather condition which strengthens the south-westerly jet, responsible for bringing in the winter season over Pakistan. It translates into intermittent waves of extremely cold weather throughout the season and has thus resulted in much cooler temperatures not only up north but also in the south.

“Climate change has further strengthened the impact of La Nina. There is more moisture in the air due to global warming. In summer, it leads to monsoons while in winter it leads to cooler temperatures,” Arshad explained.

In the case of Balochistan, he continued, this phenomenon resulted in significant rains. Curtailment of natural drainage due to development activities further served as the cherry on top.

Bizenjo concurred. He said drainage in Gwadar had been severely affected due to the construction of the Marine Drive and Expressway, highlighting that the roads had been built at a higher height than the city.

“Earlier, the water used to be directly drained into the sea, but that entire process has been disturbed now,” he added.

Invisible forces

Amid the tug-of-war between rain and snow, the plains of Punjab remained invisible due to impenetrable fog and toxic smog.

For the past several years, Pakistan has been topping the chart of toxicity, with the air quality index showing Lahore and Karachi as the most polluted cities numerous times.

Before delving deeper into this problem, let’s first understand the difference between fog and smog. Fog consists of water droplets in the air, whereas smog is a serious air pollutant that combines fog and smoke. Fog makes it hard to notice things from a distance but isn’t dangerous to health, while long-term exposure to smog causes chronic conditions such as asthma, or lung problems.

The causes of smog are complex and multifaceted, involving both natural and human factors. Some of the natural factors include low wind speed, high humidity, and temperature inversion, which trap the pollutants near the ground.

Punjab reported plenty of both smog and fog from December to late February. And the already bad situation was worsened by dry weather, prompting the provincial government to resort to artificial rain.

WWF’s Arshad told Dawn.com that the absence of western disturbances — a weather pattern that brings moisture from the Mediterranean — created very dry weather conditions in November, December and January in both Pakistan and India.

This resulted in reduced temperatures as well as intense fog and smog, he said.

To put it simply, when the temperature drops and cold air blankets the ground, it traps the pollutants — think of it like a pollutant-catching blanket that covers the ground during winter. The particles in cold air also naturally hold less moisture, which isn’t exactly ideal because rain helps wash away pollutants.

According to a 2019 study, titled Falling Trend of Western Disturbances in Future Climate Simulations, winter precipitation in northern India and Pakistan was projected to decrease over the coming century due to falling western disturbance activity.

“The decline in WD frequency and intensity will cause a decrease in mean winter rainfall over Pakistan and northern India amounting to about 15 per cent of the mean,” it highlighted.

But at the same, another trend has been noted in western disturbances is their increasingly frequent occurrences in May, June and July, as highlighted by Kieran Hunt, a meteorology research fellow, in his analysis of western disturbances.

Hunt’s most important finding was the increase in monsoonal western disturbances, which means that “catastrophic events”, like floods, are becoming “much more frequent”.

What next?

But that is just the first three months of the year. From the looks of it, these extreme climate events don’t seem to end here.

The arrival of unexpected weather conditions in the spring months of this year is an indication that floods, if they hit Pakistan again this year, are only going to get worse.

As disaster and climate vulnerability expert Fatima Yasin put it, the rising sea temperatures had warmed up oceans, which in turn triggered a host of climate-related activities such as prolonged summers, unpredictable rainfall and everything else which is not in sync with the natural order of things.

The fact that the surface temperature of the world’s oceans hit its highest-ever level — global average daily sea surface temperatures hit 20.96 Celsius in August, breaking the record of 20.95C reached in 2016 — only adds weight to Yasin’s analysis.

The rising temperature of the oceans has nearly doubled the melting speed of glaciers over the last two decades. The glaciers of the Hindukush and Himalayan ranges, which cap almost the whole South Asian region, including Pakistan, are particularly vulnerable to being affected and could lose up to 75pc of their volume by the turn of the century, scientists warn.

The instability caused by global warming is not going to spare any of the five elements of nature — air, water, fire, earth and space — all of which are interconnected. Floods, droughts and natural disasters have occurred throughout the course of human existence, but the exponential rise in the scale and ferociousness of such events is telling of the times to come.



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